Feb 8, 2012

Some 2012 Predictions

Yeah: we know. Pedictions are supposed to get made in the beginning of January, not February. So, we're a month late. Here we go with a few...

Romney chooses either Rubio or Christie as his VP running mate.

Obama wins the popular vote but Romney wins the electoral college count.

Poland and Turkey emerge as key chess pieces for US int'l strategy.

US-Israel relations deteriorate.

China's GDP drops slightly as cheaper labor options arise in other nations. Meanwhile social pressures continue to rise and authorities are left to deal with the classic "rising expectations" problems among its people.

Japan shows signs of re-emerging from its long slump, primarily due to liberalization of its capital markets

US unemployment rate dips below 7.6% by year-end.

Venture / investment capital shows signs of shifting into health care (and to a lesser extent life science) as a futursitic play on the larger (and nore risk-averse) and emerging demographic play of the USA. The rationale: why gamble on unproven tech when one can instead collect from the massive outlays that will be devoted to the of the care of the aging baby boomer time bomb?

Alt-energy suddenly becomes out-of-favor as an invenstment because of the emergence of domestic natural gas as a supply solution.

Developments that make natual gas 'fracking' more environmentally-friendly arise, thus dampening resistance to the process among key political constituencies.

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