Sure Things and the Role of Chance

RAM Chips? Snowmobile Rentals? Can't Miss!

If foxes are so sly, then why do so many get hit by cars?


In the early days of the Desktop PC era, a friend of mine thought he'd play the role of Mr Smart Guy. He owned a walk-in/retail computer sales and repair business at the time, one of the first half-dozen or so in the Albany area. Although he had revenue streams coming in from a couple different directions, he was making easy money --- as in making it without really trying --- in one flukey little aspect of the operation. That business was memory chips.

Here's how it was going down: he'd buy 1MB RAM chips, a dozen or so at a time at first. This was back when your typical new PC might come equipped with 64K or 256K or 512K of core memory, mind you. The power users were quickly hitting the wall with such configurations, and off they would skip to my bud's store to add a megabyte or two. His register rang up consistent and healthy sales as a result. So many people were doing this routine all around the USA that all the hacker publications published the weekly price of 1MB RAM chips in each new issue. A new and highly watched commodity market was suddenly upon us.

So, for example, our boy might pick up the phone and order 1MB chip sets for $25/MB each. Don't shake your head: that was the kind of pricing that existed back then. But by the time it got to his shop and onto his bench to get plugged into a customer's motherboard, the published price in those magazines might have risen $10+ at retail. He was making money just by sitting on inventory for a few days. Who said inflation is a bad thing?

This was all the result of a classic supply and demand dynamic at work: the global electronics supply chain was not yet ramped-up for this tsunami of RAM-hungry PCs now hitting both the business and consumer markets all at once. It was caught with its pants down. The manufacturing infrastructure was not in place, demand far outweighed supply, and it was getting more unbalanced by the day. Too much money was chasing a rare good. Prices went up, and up, and up – eventually to $100/MB. Some of the pen-equipped geniuses out there were even predicting $1,000 pricing.

That was music to the ears of one cetain forward thinker. It was at this very point that our hero decided to go all-in, just like the riverboat gambler he fancied himself to be during our week night poker games at his home alongside the confluence of the Hudson and Mohawk. Yes, sir: it was time to spec-u-late!

He had family money, built up by the family's former eponymous business enterprise that had thrived locally for decades. Along with the cash, the family name also granted him easy credit. So, the next thing you know, the RAM chips weren't showing up at his back door in UPS trucks any more; they were coming by the tractor trailer lot. He stacked their boxes in the back room, plopped his feet on the table, lit a cigar and waited for this rocket ship to keep on course into outer space.

Well......., it didn't quite work out the way he had planned. The chip industry, especially Japan, Inc, preced him by a bit with their own all in moves and cranked up the factories to deliver the goods. The roll-up was incredibly fast, and when combined with parallel R&D breakthroughs which were increasing memory scaling by a factor of X, RAM pricing quickly plummeted – quite possibly at a rate not seen since the Amsterdam Tulip Crash of hundreds of years back.

It bankrupted our pal. Those $100 chips in the back were soon were worth $40, then $20, then $10, and then nothing. 1MB RAM sets? You got any 8" floppies to go with that, ha-ha? Today, RAM is as cheap as water. It likely won't give him much solace, but he wasn't alone. Heck, the Japanese industrial machine made the same bet-the-ranch mistake he did, and that simple fact played a major role in that nation's so-called Lost Decade. Intel, on the other hand, made the opposite bet: it clearly saw this burgeoining RAM commoditization trend and decided early-on that it wanted no part of that game. It thereby shifted its resources into central processing unit chips. It won that poker hand.

This old tale came to light in the past week upon my meeting a sad gent who had just made a similar all-in bet. His brainstorm: buy a fleet of snowmobiles in the Lake George area and get into the rental business. Take their credit cards, hand them a trail map and get out of the way before they run you over. Sure enough, he pulled that trigger last autumn, with a big bank loan delivering a dozen shiny new sleds to his rented garage and its attached properly equipped showroom. A P-G (Personal Guarantee) was required by the bank to make this all happen, of course. But what the heck: he couldn't go wrong. Right?

Well........., he could and he did. Apparently, Mother Nature wasn't on his payroll this winter, and the near non-appearance of the white stuff killed him. He related that he didn't even hit 5% of his revenue projections. When I mentioned the concept of weather insurance, he replied “how's that work?” He's now on the ropes, with his home's equity already eaten up and some real soul searching now taking place under its roof. I sensed his wife wasn't a happy camper, either.

Entrepreneurship is not a game that's played in short pants. Still. the thrill of the sport attracts many of us to it But just like other sports have some players that get washed-out in the low minors --- often for reasons beyond their control such as physical injuryg --- it's a game than many of us feel compelled to play, regardless.



"I'd rather fail at my own enterprise than succeed as the VP of someone else's."



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Broadcast This!

"To traditional corporations, networked conversations may appear confused, may sound confusing. But we are organizing faster than they are. We have better tools, more new ideas, no rules to slow us down." (Cluetrain Manifesto, Theses # 94)


Although pointing out the new rules of engagement between org's and their markets, this gem also highlights how Old Media was so confused by Occupy Wall Street, with their mis-placed clamoring of "what exactly are they demanding and who exactly is behindthis and in-change of it?"

It is no longer all about top-down, broadcast style messaging and command & control systems. But they don't get that.


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Like/Dislike

Great Band Names

Death Cab for Cutie
Dead Kennedys
Milk Carton Kids
Morning Wood
Widespread Panic
Drive By Truckers
Heartless Bastards
Butt Hole Surfers
Vanilla Fudge


Immaturity?
Artists that I disliked at first; but grew to appreciate

Springsteen/E Street Band
Thin Lizzy
Rush
Johnny Cash
Duke Ellington
Mahavishnu Orchestra
Modern Jazz Quartet
Louis Armstrong
Morrissey
Tori Amos
Michael Hedges
Los Lobos
John Fahey
Chet Atkins
Brian Eno
Franz Schubert
Gershwin Bros
WAR



Artists I liked at one time, then it became "WTF was I thinking?"

Grand Funk Railroad
Rare Earth
America
Chicago
Los Lonely Boys
Oasis
Humble Pie
Elton John


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Charter Change Vote is a Go

The Times Union's fine reporter Dennis Yusko seems to be the first to report today that the NYS Appellate Court has ruled in favor of the Saratoga charter change group known as Saratoga Citizen in its fight to get its proposal on a ballot.

Their stated mission now is to attempt a fast-track it and to make that all happen this year, in November.

If all of this REALLY has to happen, then 2012 would be the best year to do it. Being it is a presidential election year, the turnout will be far greater than if it were done in an off-year like 2013. An off-year would draw only the fanatics to the booth, thus giving the proposal a better chance than normal. Something tells me that, despite the bluster of "let's vote now", Saratoga Citizen would actually prefer 2013 for the above reasons.

So, let's put it on the November ballot. Let the war begin



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Soulless Autonama

A trip to Atlanta
Is there a human being on duty here? Anywhere?

- Got Gas @ self-serve pump, swiped card

- Hit the Thruway: paid tolls thru EZ Passs lanes all the way down (slowed; never stopped)

- Parked in Newark Int'l Airport lot: the toll gate machine gave me a ticket

- Took the monorail (no human operator on board) to the terminal

- Checked in via Kiosk: it verified my reservation, I picked my seat, I checked a bag

- Went thru security: I actually semi-interacted with a human; although no words were spoken by either of us. Just an index finger waving me thru the x-ray

- Got a coffee thru a machine; waived my card to pay the $3 charge. It wasn't bad!

- Made phone calls, checked email and did some graphic design work while waiting at gate

- Checked monitors for flight info: on time departure scheduled

- Boarded plane: the first verbal 2-way interaction of the day was a "hi; thank you" followed by a "welcome" from my end. Eyes never met

- Flew to Atlanta: the guy next to me zoned out with his Kindle and ear buds/music; he never said a peep

- I was dozing when drinks were offered; so I never interacted with a flight attendant

- Arrived @ Atlanta: rental car was waiting with my name on the sign in front of it, the keys in the ignition and my paperwork on the seat. I never had to go near anyone. Just adjusted the controls and drove off.

- Checked-in to hotel. Yes, you guess it: automated kiosk verified my reservation and dispensed the room key

- Met a pal later in the 'burbs. She must have thought I'd been an island castaway for a year, given my joy in actually engaging in real life / real world human interaction. If we were counting, we'd no doubt conclude that she directed more words in my direction in her very first sentence than I had received from everyone else combined @ the rest of the day. A day which started in upstate New York!

There's a snapshot of the modern American on-the-go dynamic. I dealt with more machines than I did people.

Of note: the next morning, as I was making my way to my appointment on Peachtree, I had my next human interaction of the trip. A homeless man hustled me up for "breakfast money." Now there's a function that hasn't been automated yet: panhandling!

Maybe it's time for a brain trust retreat, where we can figure out a way to change that?

A Skype conference, of course...


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Just Wonderin'...

So how's that guy in Delmar, NY doing today? You know, the guy who walked into his local Stewarts and said "gimme $1,000 Quick Picks for the Mega Millions drawing."

Anyone seen him? If not, ya might wanna start making inquiries....


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