The Problem:
Horse racing needs a marketing gimmick to boost worldwide interest in its premier event, the Kentucky Derby, as a small part of its need to expand the sport's declining fan base.
The Fix:
Create a guaranteed mega jackpot contest for picking the complete order of finish for the Derby. A suitable figure might be $100 million for each and every winner.
The Logic:
Money talks. Raises interest amongst the 'lottery' crowd. Creates huge buzz.
The Math:
The chances of correctly predicting the complete order of finish of this race (which is typically 14 runners) are astronomically high. Doing it strictly as a number picking exercise (ie., without handicapping), the calculation goes like this:
- 14x13x12x11x10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 87,178,291,200
The resulting figure (87+billion : 1) is far beyond the suggested $100 million payout(s), therefore the contest could be insured for a reasonable premium. That premium becomes a marketing expense for the industry.
Now, if the industry only had an empowered, funded and centralized organization that would take ownership of such an initiative...
4 comments:
Nice tie.
Is that math right? I guess it is. But I flunked HS math. So WTF do I know. It just seems huge. Like that fat obnoxious guy on the television commericals. HUGE. Do you think he's doing the girl with him in those? I do.
But back to the post. The bet would have to go thru the usual channels, which means race tracks or phone or internet accounts. So that puts up a roadblock to getting new people into the game with their new found interest. Right? They don't have phone-in accounts, and the race track is the last place on earth they want to go to.
Right? Right? Right?
Diamond Jim:
Good points; you are obviously well versed in the matter.
Now why do I need to be the one doing all the thinking around here? Huh? Huh? Tell me!
Here's the counter:
Figure out a way to do it thru the multi-state mega lottery. True, that isn't the whole nation, but it's a start.
A dirty little secret of NYS Lottery is this: they take a 50% cut. We thought the takeout at the track was obscene? Yikes.
So, with a 50% takeout, there's enough vig (to use the old underworld term) to still kick the 15 to 25% back to the racing industry that it normally gets via a direct setup.
The infrastructure is thereby in place for this wager to be sold at every existing Lottery terminal location. Those location would still get their vendor cuts (again: the huge takeout).
Yeah, yeah, I know: there are complications such as this wager being more a game of skill vs. a game of chance, etc, etc.
But heck: they figured out a way of getting around the NYS consitutional ban on gambling by pretending VLT racinos are casinos--- so there's plenty of room for some creative thinkers somewhere to figure out a workaround here on this one.
Now get to work on it.
I can't pick the winner. I'm supposed to pick all 14 now?
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